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Conservative Revolution

Britain and the world’s oldest conservative think tank

Conservative Revolution

Britain and the world’s oldest conservative think tank

Express: The Bow Group has shown that the draft immigration bill has scrapped the target of bringing net migration down to less than 100,000

Feb 11, 2019 | News, Print Media

Read the full article at the Daily Express

SECRET talks have begun between the UK and EU to prepare the way for a managed no-deal Brexit, sources in Brussels have claimed.

It is also understood that the World Trade Organisation has opened the door to a route for the EU and UK to continue trading on an interim basis in the event of no deal being reached by March 29. The revelations come as leading pro-Brexit lawyers have warned that extending Article 50 would be a “blackmailer’s charter” for the EU. Senior figures in Brussels have said that officials at UK Rep – the British embassy in Brussels – have been “putting out feelers” for extending Article 50, but “only to deliver a managed no-deal”

The reports have been strongly denied by Downing Street which insists that the Government “is solely focused on delivering a deal”.

But it is also understood that the WTO has privately told Tory MEP David Campbell Bannerman that his plan to use Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to have a near seamless managed no deal would work.

As long as both the UK and EU agree to invoke Article 24 as an interim arrangement ahead of working out a free trade agreement then the two can continue to trade on the same terms as they do now.

The proposal has been put forward in Cabinet by international trade secretary Liam Fox but questions were raised by Whitehall officials about the legality of doing it before the UK leaves.

But, according to WTO sources, the UK and EU could agree to invoke it at midnight on March 29 when Britain leaves, although Brexit is “unprecedented” in international law.

The decision would only become an issue if an objection was raised by another WTO member but they “would need to prove harm” to their own trading circumstances.

This means that if Britain and the EU simply trade on the same terms as before “it will be difficult to prove harm”.

Privately, Brexiteers have suggested that the EU could be given part of the £39 billion divorce bill as “a sweetener” to get them to agree to the Article 24 route, which Brussels has used previously to give extra time for new members such as the Czech Republic to join.

A source at the WTO said that the organisation does not want to make a public statement on the issue because it does not want to intervene in the complexities of the Brexit negotiation.

However, a spokesman said the WTO “hopes the outcome [of Brexit] will be the smoothest possible trading relations with all parties”. Meanwhile, in a new report Lawyers for Britain has warned that extending Article 50 and delaying Brexit would be dangerous for Britain.

Martin Howe QC has said that in the event that Britain makes the request for an extension, “Spain is likely to demand permanent concessions over Gibraltar”.

Mr Howe said Germany is making plans to use any Article 50 extension request to “lock in” the UK’s agreement to pay £39billion under the Withdrawal Agreement.

If the UK and EU agree to invoke Article 24 as an interim arrangement the two can continue to trade (Image: Getty Images)

The sum would then remain payable whether or not an exit deal was reached.

According to his analysis, in the event that Article 50 was extended for three months or less, it would only allow an extra negotiating period of three weeks as the current European Parliament term ends on April 18.

Mr Howe concluded that “by asking for a favour when up against the clock, the UK would once again put itself in a very weak negotiating position” and therefore, asking for an extension to Article 50 is a “terrible, terrible idea”.

In further analysis the Bow Group has shown that the draft immigration bill has effectively scrapped the target of bringing net migration down to less than 100,000.

It also warns that the phrasing around EU students means they could also be added to those getting permanent residency, which the Bow Group said could increase the number eligible by 500,000.